Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding.

A central aim of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is to estimate direct genetic effects: the causal effects on an individual's phenotype of the alleles that they carry. However, estimates of direct effects can be subject to genetic and environmental confounding and can also absorb the "indirect" genetic effects of relatives' genotypes. Recently, an important development in controlling for these confounds has been the use of within-family GWASs, which, because of the randomness of mendelian segregation within pedigrees, are often interpreted as producing unbiased estimates of direct effects. Here, we present a general theoretical analysis of the influence of confounding in standard population-based and within-family GWASs. We show that, contrary to common interpretation, family-based estimates of direct effects can be biased by genetic confounding. In humans, such biases will often be small per-locus, but can be compounded when effect-size estimates are used in polygenic scores (PGSs). We illustrate the influence of genetic confounding on population- and family-based estimates of direct effects using models of assortative mating, population stratification, and stabilizing selection on GWAS traits. We further show how family-based estimates of indirect genetic effects, based on comparisons of parentally transmitted and untransmitted alleles, can suffer substantial genetic confounding. We conclude that, while family-based studies have placed GWAS estimation on a more rigorous footing, they carry subtle issues of interpretation that arise from confounding.

Haplotype function score improves biological interpretation and cross-ancestry polygenic prediction of human complex traits.

We propose a new framework for human genetic association studies: at each locus, a deep learning model (in this study, Sei) is used to calculate the functional genomic activity score for two haplotypes per individual. This score, defined as the Haplotype Function Score (HFS), replaces the original genotype in association studies. Applying the HFS framework to 14 complex traits in the UK Biobank, we identified 3619 independent HFS-trait associations with a significance of p < 5 × 10-8. Fine-mapping revealed 2699 causal associations, corresponding to a median increase of 63 causal findings per trait compared with single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based analysis. HFS-based enrichment analysis uncovered 727 pathway-trait associations and 153 tissue-trait associations with strong biological interpretability, including 'circadian pathway-chronotype' and 'arachidonic acid-intelligence'. Lastly, we applied least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to integrate HFS prediction score with SNP-based polygenic risk scores, which showed an improvement of 16.1-39.8% in cross-ancestry polygenic prediction. We concluded that HFS is a promising strategy for understanding the genetic basis of human complex traits.

Scattered throughout the human genome are variations in the genetic code that make individuals more or less likely to develop certain traits. To identify these variants, scientists carry out Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) which compare the DNA variants of large groups of people with and without the trait of interest. This method has been able to find the underlying genes for many human diseases, but it has limitations. For instance, some variations are linked together due to where they are positioned within DNA, which can result in GWAS falsely reporting associations between genetic variants and traits. This phenomenon, known as linkage equilibrium, can be avoided by analyzing functional genomics which looks at the multiple ways a gene's activity can be influenced by a variation. For instance, how the gene is copied and decoded in to proteins and RNA molecules, and the rate at which these products are generated. Researchers can now use an artificial intelligence technique called deep learning to generate functional genomic data from a particular DNA sequence. Here, Song et al. used one of these deep learning models to calculate the functional genomics of haplotypes, groups of genetic variants inherited from one parent. The approach was applied to DNA samples from over 350 thousand individuals included in the UK BioBank. An activity score, defined as the haplotype function score (or HFS for short), was calculated for at least two haplotypes per individual, and then compared to various complex traits like height or bone density. Song et al. found that the HFS framework was better at finding links between genes and specific traits than existing methods. It also provided more information on the biology that may be underpinning these outcomes. Although more work is needed to reduce the computer processing times required to calculate the HFS, Song et al. believe that their new method has the potential to improve the way researchers identify links between genes and human traits.

MUSSEL: Enhanced Bayesian polygenic risk prediction leveraging information across multiple ancestry groups.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are now showing promising predictive performance on a wide variety of complex traits and diseases, but there exists a substantial performance gap across populations. We propose MUSSEL, a method for ancestry-specific polygenic prediction that borrows information in summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) across multiple ancestry groups via Bayesian hierarchical modeling and ensemble learning. In our simulation studies and data analyses across four distinct studies, totaling 5.7 million participants with a substantial ancestral diversity, MUSSEL shows promising performance compared to alternatives. For example, MUSSEL has an average gain in prediction R2 across 11 continuous traits of 40.2% and 49.3% compared to PRS-CSx and CT-SLEB, respectively, in the African ancestry population. The best-performing method, however, varies by GWAS sample size, target ancestry, trait architecture, and linkage disequilibrium reference samples; thus, ultimately a combination of methods may be needed to generate the most robust PRSs across diverse populations.

Bayesian approach to assessing population differences in genetic risk of disease with application to prostate cancer.

Population differences in risk of disease are common, but the potential genetic basis for these differences is not well understood. A standard approach is to compare genetic risk across populations by testing for mean differences in polygenic scores, but existing studies that use this approach do not account for statistical noise in effect estimates (i.e., the GWAS betas) that arise due to the finite sample size of GWAS training data. Here, we show using Bayesian polygenic score methods that the level of uncertainty in estimates of genetic risk differences across populations is highly dependent on the GWAS training sample size, the polygenicity (number of causal variants), and genetic distance (FST) between the populations considered. We derive a Wald test for formally assessing the difference in genetic risk across populations, which we show to have calibrated type 1 error rates under a simplified assumption that all SNPs are independent, which we achieve in practise using linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruning. We further provide closed-form expressions for assessing the uncertainty in estimates of relative genetic risk across populations under the special case of an infinitesimal genetic architecture. We suggest that for many complex traits and diseases, particularly those with more polygenic architectures, current GWAS sample sizes are insufficient to detect moderate differences in genetic risk across populations, though more substantial differences in relative genetic risk (relative risk > 1.5) can be detected. We show that conventional approaches that do not account for sampling error from the training sample, such as using a simple t-test, have very high type 1 error rates. When applying our approach to prostate cancer, we demonstrate a higher genetic risk in African Ancestry men, with lower risk in men of European followed by East Asian ancestry.

Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions.

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1, a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

An ensemble penalized regression method for multi-ancestry polygenic risk prediction.

Great efforts are being made to develop advanced polygenic risk scores (PRS) to improve the prediction of complex traits and diseases. However, most existing PRS are primarily trained on European ancestry populations, limiting their transferability to non-European populations. In this article, we propose a novel method for generating multi-ancestry Polygenic Risk scOres based on enSemble of PEnalized Regression models (PROSPER). PROSPER integrates genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics from diverse populations to develop ancestry-specific PRS with improved predictive power for minority populations. The method uses a combination of L 1 (lasso) and L 2 (ridge) penalty functions, a parsimonious specification of the penalty parameters across populations, and an ensemble step to combine PRS generated across different penalty parameters. We evaluate the performance of PROSPER and other existing methods on large-scale simulated and real datasets, including those from 23andMe Inc., the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, and All of Us. Results show that PROSPER can substantially improve multi-ancestry polygenic prediction compared to alternative methods across a wide variety of genetic architectures. In real data analyses, for example, PROSPER increased out-of-sample prediction R2 for continuous traits by an average of 70% compared to a state-of-the-art Bayesian method (PRS-CSx) in the African ancestry population. Further, PROSPER is computationally highly scalable for the analysis of large SNP contents and many diverse populations.

Cell-type-specific and disease-associated expression quantitative trait loci in the human lung.

Common genetic variants confer substantial risk for chronic lung diseases, including pulmonary fibrosis. Defining the genetic control of gene expression in a cell-type-specific and context-dependent manner is critical for understanding the mechanisms through which genetic variation influences complex traits and disease pathobiology. To this end, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing of lung tissue from 66 individuals with pulmonary fibrosis and 48 unaffected donors. Using a pseudobulk approach, we mapped expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) across 38 cell types, observing both shared and cell-type-specific regulatory effects. Furthermore, we identified disease interaction eQTLs and demonstrated that this class of associations is more likely to be cell-type-specific and linked to cellular dysregulation in pulmonary fibrosis. Finally, we connected lung disease risk variants to their regulatory targets in disease-relevant cell types. These results indicate that cellular context determines the impact of genetic variation on gene expression and implicates context-specific eQTLs as key regulators of lung homeostasis and disease.

Studying the relationship between intelligence quotient and schizophrenia polygenic scores in a family design with first-episode psychosis population.

BACKGROUND: The intelligence quotient (IQ) of patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and their unaffected relatives may be related to the genetic burden of schizophrenia (SCZ). The polygenic score approach can be useful for testing this question. AIM: To assess the contribution of the polygenic risk scores for SCZ (PGS-SCZ) and polygenic scores for IQ (PGS-IQ) to the individual IQ and its difference from the mean IQ of the family (named family-IQ) through a family-based design in an FEP sample. METHODS: The PAFIP-FAMILIES sample (Spain) consists of 122 FEP patients, 131 parents, 94 siblings, and 176 controls. They all completed the WAIS Vocabulary subtest for IQ estimation and provided a DNA sample. We calculated PGS-SCZ and PGS-IQ using the continuous shrinkage method. To account for relatedness in our sample, we performed linear mixed models. We controlled for covariates potentially related to IQ, including age, years of education, sex, and ancestry principal components. RESULTS: FEP patients significantly deviated from their family-IQ. FEP patients had higher PGS-SCZ than other groups, whereas the relatives had intermediate scores between patients and controls. PGS-IQ did not differ between groups. PGS-SCZ significantly predicted the deviation from family-IQ, whereas PGS-IQ significantly predicted individual IQ. CONCLUSIONS: PGS-SCZ discriminated between different levels of genetic risk for the disorder and was specifically related to patients' lower IQ in relation to family-IQ. The genetic background of the disorder may affect neurocognition through complex pathological processes interacting with environmental factors that prevent the individual from reaching their familial cognitive potential.

Massive Parallel DNA Sequencing of Patients with Inherited Cardiomyopathies in Cyprus and Suggestion of Digenic or Oligogenic Inheritance.

Inherited cardiomyopathies represent a highly heterogeneous group of cardiac diseases. DNA variants in genes expressed in cardiomyocytes cause a diverse spectrum of cardiomyopathies, ultimately leading to heart failure, arrythmias, and sudden cardiac death. We applied massive parallel DNA sequencing using a 72-gene panel for studying inherited cardiomyopathies. We report on variants in 25 families, where pathogenicity was predicted by different computational approaches, databases, and an in-house filtering analysis. All variants were validated using Sanger sequencing. Familial segregation was tested when possible. We identified 41 different variants in 26 genes. Analytically, we identified fifteen variants previously reported in the Human Gene Mutation Database: twelve mentioned as disease-causing mutations (DM) and three as probable disease-causing mutations (DM?). Additionally, we identified 26 novel variants. We classified the forty-one variants as follows: twenty-eight (68.3%) as variants of uncertain significance, eight (19.5%) as likely pathogenic, and five (12.2%) as pathogenic. We genetically characterized families with a cardiac phenotype. The genetic heterogeneity and the multiplicity of candidate variants are making a definite molecular diagnosis challenging, especially when there is a suspicion of incomplete penetrance or digenic-oligogenic inheritance. This is the first systematic study of inherited cardiac conditions in Cyprus, enabling us to develop a genetic baseline and precision cardiology.

Integrative cross-omics and cross-context analysis elucidates molecular links underlying genetic effects on complex traits.

Genetic effects on functionally related 'omic' traits often co-occur in relevant cellular contexts, such as tissues. Motivated by the multi-tissue methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) and expression QTLs (eQTLs) analysis, we propose X-ING (Cross-INtegrative Genomics) for cross-omics and cross-context integrative analysis. X-ING takes as input multiple matrices of association statistics, each obtained from different omics data types across multiple cellular contexts. It models the latent binary association status of each statistic, captures the major association patterns among omics data types and contexts, and outputs the posterior mean and probability for each input statistic. X-ING enables the integration of effects from different omics data with varying effect distributions. In the multi-tissue cis-association analysis, X-ING shows improved detection and replication of mQTLs by integrating eQTL maps. In the trans-association analysis, X-ING reveals an enrichment of trans-associations in many disease/trait-relevant tissues.

The cliff edge model of the evolution of schizophrenia: Mathematical, epidemiological, and genetic evidence.

How has schizophrenia, a condition that significantly reduces an individual's evolutionary fitness, remained common across generations and cultures? Numerous theories about the evolution of schizophrenia have been proposed, most of which are not consistent with modern epidemiological and genetic evidence. Here, we briefly review this evidence and explore the cliff edge model of schizophrenia. It suggests that schizophrenia is the extreme manifestation of a polygenic trait or a combination of traits that, within a normal range of variation, confer cognitive, linguistic, and/or social advantages. Only beyond a certain threshold, these traits precipitate the onset of schizophrenia and reduce fitness. We provide the first mathematical model of this qualitative concept and show that it requires only very weak positive selection of the underlying trait(s) to explain today's schizophrenia prevalence. This prediction, along with expectations about the effect size of schizophrenia risk alleles, are surprisingly well matched by empirical evidence. The cliff edge model predicts a dynamic change of selection of risk alleles, which explains the contradictory findings of evolutionary genetic studies.

Phenome-wide causal associations between osteoarthritis and other complex traits through the latent causal variable analysis.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with osteoarthritis present with comorbidities, and the potential causal associations remain incompletely elucidated. The present study undertook a large-scale investigation about the causality between osteoarthritis and variable traits, using the summary-level data of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). METHODS: The present study included the summary-level GWS data of knee osteoarthritis, hip osteoarthritis, hip or knee osteoarthritis, hand osteoarthritis, and other 1355 traits. Genetic correlation analysis was conducted between osteoarthritis and other traits through cross-trait bivariate linkage disequilibrium score regression. Subsequently, latent causal variable analysis was performed to explore the causal association when there was a significant genetic correlation. Genetic correlation and latent causal variable analysis were conducted on the Complex Traits Genomics Virtual Lab platform ( https://vl.genoma.io/ ). RESULTS: We found 133 unique phenotypes showing causal relationships with osteoarthritis. Our results confirmed several well-established risk factors of osteoarthritis, such as obesity, weight, BMI, and meniscus derangement. Additionally, our findings suggested putative causal links between osteoarthritis and multiple factors. Socioeconomic determinants such as occupational exposure to dust and diesel exhaust, extended work hours exceeding 40 per week, and unemployment status were implicated. Furthermore, our analysis revealed causal associations with cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, including heart failure, deep venous thrombosis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and elevated cholesterol levels. Soft tissue and musculoskeletal disorders, such as hallux valgus, internal derangement of the knee, and spondylitis, were also identified to be causally related to osteoarthritis. The study also identified the putative causal associations of osteoarthritis with digestive and respiratory diseases, such as Barrett's esophagus, esophagitis, and asthma, as well as psychiatric conditions including panic attacks and manic or hyperactive episodes. Additionally, we observed osteoarthritis causally related to pharmacological treatments, such as the use of antihypertensive medications, anti-asthmatic drugs, and antidepressants. CONCLUSION: Our study uncovered a wide range of traits causally associated with osteoarthritis. Further studies are needed to validate and illustrate the detailed mechanism of those causal associations.

Genetic and molecular architecture of complex traits.

Human genetics has emerged as one of the most dynamic areas of biology, with a broadening societal impact. In this review, we discuss recent achievements, ongoing efforts, and future challenges in the field. Advances in technology, statistical methods, and the growing scale of research efforts have all provided many insights into the processes that have given rise to the current patterns of genetic variation. Vast maps of genetic associations with human traits and diseases have allowed characterization of their genetic architecture. Finally, studies of molecular and cellular effects of genetic variants have provided insights into biological processes underlying disease. Many outstanding questions remain, but the field is well poised for groundbreaking discoveries as it increases the use of genetic data to understand both the history of our species and its applications to improve human health.

The ethics of polygenic scores in psychiatry: minefield or opportunity for patient-centered psychiatry?

Recent advancements in psychiatric genetics have sparked a lively debate on the opportunities and pitfalls of incorporating polygenic scores into clinical practice. Yet, several ethical concerns have been raised, casting doubt on whether further development and implementation of polygenic scores would be compatible with providing ethically responsible care. While these ethical issues warrant thoughtful consideration, it is equally important to recognize the unresolved need for guidance on heritability among patients and their families. Increasing the availability of genetic counseling services in psychiatry should be regarded as a first step toward meeting these needs. As a next step, future integration of novel genetic tools such as polygenic scores into genetic counseling may be a promising way to improve psychiatric counseling practice. By embedding the exploration of polygenic psychiatry into the supporting environment of genetic counseling, some of the previously identified ethical pitfalls may be prevented, and opportunities to bolster patient empowerment can be seized upon. To ensure an ethically responsible approach to psychiatric genetics, active collaboration with patients and their relatives is essential, accompanied by educational efforts to facilitate informed discussions between psychiatrists and patients.

Multiplexed Transactivation of Mammalian Cells Using dFnCas12a-VPR.

CRISPR activation provides an invaluable tool for experimental biologists to convert correlations into causation by directly observing phenotypic changes upon targeted changes in gene expression. With few exceptions, most diseases are caused by complex polygenic interactions, with multiple genes contributing to define the output of a gene network. As such researchers are increasingly interested in tools that can offer not only control but also the capacity to simultaneously upregulate multiple genes. The adaptation of CRISPR/Cas12a has provided a system especially suited to the tightly coordinated overexpression of multiple targeted genes. Here we describe an approach to test for active targeting crRNAs for dFnCas12a-VPR, before proceeding to generate and validate longer crRNA arrays for multiplexed targeting of genes of interest.

Multi-ancestry polygenic mechanisms of type 2 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a multifactorial disease with substantial genetic risk, for which the underlying biological mechanisms are not fully understood. In this study, we identified multi-ancestry T2D genetic clusters by analyzing genetic data from diverse populations in 37 published T2D genome-wide association studies representing more than 1.4 million individuals. We implemented soft clustering with 650 T2D-associated genetic variants and 110 T2D-related traits, capturing known and novel T2D clusters with distinct cardiometabolic trait associations across two independent biobanks representing diverse genetic ancestral populations (African, n = 21,906; Admixed American, n = 14,410; East Asian, n =2,422; European, n = 90,093; and South Asian, n = 1,262). The 12 genetic clusters were enriched for specific single-cell regulatory regions. Several of the polygenic scores derived from the clusters differed in distribution among ancestry groups, including a significantly higher proportion of lipodystrophy-related polygenic risk in East Asian ancestry. T2D risk was equivalent at a body mass index (BMI) of 30 kg m-2 in the European subpopulation and 24.2 (22.9-25.5) kg m-2 in the East Asian subpopulation; after adjusting for cluster-specific genetic risk, the equivalent BMI threshold increased to 28.5 (27.1-30.0) kg m-2 in the East Asian group. Thus, these multi-ancestry T2D genetic clusters encompass a broader range of biological mechanisms and provide preliminary insights to explain ancestry-associated differences in T2D risk profiles.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Examining the interaction between prenatal stress and polygenic risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder on brain growth in childhood: Findings from the DREAM BIG consortium.

This study explored the interactions among prenatal stress, child sex, and polygenic risk scores (PGS) for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) on structural developmental changes of brain regions implicated in ADHD. We used data from two population-based birth cohorts: Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) from Singapore (n = 113) and Generation R from Rotterdam, the Netherlands (n = 433). Prenatal stress was assessed using questionnaires. We obtained latent constructs of prenatal adversity and prenatal mood problems using confirmatory factor analyses. The participants were genotyped using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism arrays, and ADHD PGSs were computed. Magnetic resonance imaging scans were acquired at 4.5 and 6 years (GUSTO), and at 10 and 14 years (Generation R). We estimated the age-related rate of change for brain outcomes related to ADHD and performed (1) prenatal stress by sex interaction models, (2) prenatal stress by ADHD PGS interaction models, and (3) 3-way interaction models, including prenatal stress, sex, and ADHD PGS. We observed an interaction between prenatal stress and ADHD PGS on mean cortical thickness annual rate of change in Generation R (i.e., in individuals with higher ADHD PGS, higher prenatal stress was associated with a lower rate of cortical thinning, whereas in individuals with lower ADHD PGS, higher prenatal stress was associated with a higher rate of cortical thinning). None of the other tested interactions were statistically significant. Higher prenatal stress may promote a slower brain developmental rate during adolescence in individuals with higher ADHD genetic vulnerability, whereas it may promote a faster brain developmental rate in individuals with lower ADHD genetic vulnerability.